September Inflation Hotter Than Expected at 8.2%, Core Inflation Accelerates to 6.6%

September Inflation Hotter Than Expected at 8.2%, Core Inflation Accelerates to 6.6%

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• In September, the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 8.2% compared to September 2021, down slightly from the previous month’s 8.3%, but above market expectations of 8.1%. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, accelerated to 6.6%, above last month’s 6.3% increase and above the market expectation of 6.5%. Core inflation is the highest in over 40 years (August 1982).
• The food at home index rose 13% over the last 12 months, slightly lower than last month’s 13.5%. Despite the slight decline, grocery price inflation remains near the highest levels in more than 4 decades. Compared to September 2021, the index for cereals and bakery products was up 16.2%, the meat, poultry, and eggs index was up 9%, the dairy product index was up 15.9%, and the index for fruits and vegetables rose 10.4%.
• The largest contributors to inflation were transportation, housing, and food, which represented approximately 86% of the 8.2% increase in consumer prices. Housing price inflation at 8.0% was the highest in more than 4 decades. For energy products specifically, the gasoline price index rose by 18.2% in September which is the first month below 20% since March 2021.
• Compared to January 2021, the CPI-U is up 13.5% and marks the largest level of inflation of any President during the first 21 months in office since Jimmy Carter (13.7%).  Similarly, since January 2021, the gasoline price index is up 58.6%, the highest of any President in over 4 decades, and the food-at-home (grocery) price index is up 17.7%, which is the highest of any President since Jimmy Carter (18.1%).
• The higher-than-expected inflation report, combined with the most recent Jobs Report showing continued gains in wages and jobs, will further fuel investor concerns over mounting economic risks domestically and abroad associated with aggressive actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks.